Fantasy Baseball Deep Dive: The Sustainability of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Paul Skenes’ Hot Starts
Introduction
The 2025 fantasy baseball season has introduced us to breakout performances that demand closer examination. Two names stand out early: Pete Crow-Armstrong, the dynamic outfielder showing unexpected power, and Paul Skenes, the flame-throwing pitcher dominating hitters with ease. But are these starts legitimate, or will regression hit hard? This analysis breaks down their performances, underlying metrics, and fantasy outlooks to help managers make informed roster decisions.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: A Five-Category Threat Emerging?
Breaking Down the Early Numbers
Crow-Armstrong entered 2025 with a reputation as a glove-first prospect, but his bat has forced a reevaluation. Through 26 games, he’s slashing .294/.340/.485 with 10 stolen bases, 17 RBIs, and an improved 78% contact rate (up from 70% in 2024). His launch angle has increased by 3 degrees, suggesting a deliberate effort to tap into power—a development few anticipated.
Key metrics to watch:
– Hard-hit rate (42%, up from 35%) – More barrels mean more extra-base hits.
– Stolen base success rate (91%) – Elite speed plays even if power dips.
– K% reduction (18% from 24%) – Better pitch recognition is sustaining his average.
Is This Sustainable?
While Crow-Armstrong won’t maintain a .294 average all season, his adjustments are real. His BABIP (.340) is high but not outrageous for a player with his speed. The stolen bases are legit, and even 15-18 HR power seems plausible if his launch angle holds.
Fantasy Verdict: BUY/HOLD. He’s a rare 20 SB/15 HR candidate with upside in runs and average. Managers should ride this wave.
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Paul Skenes: Ace or Early-Season Mirage?
Dominance by the Numbers
Skenes has been untouchable: 6-0, 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9 through 11 starts. His 100.1 mph fastball is the fastest among MLB starters, and his slider (45% whiff rate) is a wipeout pitch.
Digging deeper:
– .185 xBA against – Hitters are helpless.
– 32% K-BB% – Elite command of premium stuff.
– 2.60 FIP – Suggests his ERA is *not* a fluke.
Regression Risks?
The biggest concern is innings workload. Skenes threw just 122 innings in 2024, and the Pirates may cap him at 160-170 IP this year. Fatigue could creep in late summer. However, his pitch efficiency (15.1 pitches/IP) helps mitigate that.
Fantasy Verdict: STRONG BUY. Even with mild regression, he’s a top-10 SP with Cy Young upside. Trade for him now before his price climbs further.
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Conclusion: Capitalizing on Breakouts
Strategic Takeaways for Fantasy Managers
– Crow-Armstrong is a high-floor outfielder with newfound power. Target him in trades if his owner undervalues his speed/power combo.
– Skenes is a true ace, but be mindful of innings limits in H2H playoffs. Pair him with a durable SP to offset risk.
Both players are legitimate difference-makers, not flashes in the pan. Adjust your bids, trades, and lineups accordingly—these breakouts have staying power.
